July’s US consumer price index (CPI) has seen an annual rise of 8.5%, or smaller than expected, suggesting an inflation peak and potential cool-off, after hitting 9.1% in June. (This is a developing story and will be updated as new details emerge.)
Bloomberg-surveyed economists estimated that inflation would show an 8.7% annual increase this July, and a 0.2% increase compared to June.
Also, in July, annual core CPI – which excludes prices of food and energy – was the same as in June (5.9%) and lower than estimated (6.1%).
Both bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH) jumped right after the announcement, moving above USD 23,700 and USD 1,785, respectively.
The inflation was expected to see a slower increase in July as petrol prices dropped across the country. However, it still remains close to 40-year highs.
Ahead of the announcement, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, opined that “everyone is primed for reasonably good news, so it’s got to be good news. If it’s not as good as people think, it’s going to be unusually bad news.”
“I think the 9.1% inflation rate we suffered in June will be the peak…a lot of this depends on oil prices,” he added.
Also, per a July survey from the New York Federal Reserve, consumers expected inflation to run at a 6.2% pace over the next year and a 3.2% annual rate for the next three years – compared to 6.8% and 3.6%, respectively, seen in a June survey.
Meanwhile, Marcus Sotiriou, an analyst at the digital asset broker GlobalBlock, said in a comment shared with Cryptonews.com prior to the report that,
“CPI is expected to be 8.7% – if the released number is lower than this figure, I expect a rally for crypto and equities to ensue. I think any figure below 9.1% is promising though, as this was las month’s CPI figure, and it would signal the start of a plateau with inflation. In this case, the Federal Reserve [Fed] would be inclined to become less aggressive in its next [Federal Open Market Committee] meeting in September, which the market would be excited about.”
Investors are watching the CPI for clues as to how much the Fed might raise interest rates at its September meeting.
Meanwhile, the gap between two and 10-year Treasury yields, which is considered to be a reliable recession indicator, has grown to its largest in two decades,
“[E]quity markets look as if they believe the Fed is going to stop soon and start cutting in 2023. […] I think [CPI data] will suggest the Fed is not going to stop, which to me suggests weaker equity markets ahead which will limit any dip in the dollar in the next few months,” Mizuho senior economist Colin Asher was quoted as saying by Reuters.
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