Bitcoin (BTC) launches into a new week inches from fresh all-time highs after sealing its best-ever weekly close.
- Bitcoin traders see price discovery returning in the coming week while eyeing levels toward $80,000 as a “buy the dip” opportunity.
- The weekly close set another record, but November 2024 remains nothing out of the ordinary for BTC price action.
- Markets are diverging over how the Federal Reserve will handle a brewing “stagflation” saga.
- Whales are still buying BTC, and ETF flows are elevated despite a knee-jerk reaction to last week’s $93,500 all-time high.
- Crypto sentiment gauges are getting increasingly overheated as levels of “extreme greed” reach classic blow-off top territory.
Traders prepare for BTC price volatility toward $100,000
Bitcoin saw only a modest dip into the latest record-breaking weekly close, leaving shorts on the losing end.
Above $90,000 into the week’s first Wall Street open, BTC/USD is sustaining momentum while already being up 30% month-to-date, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.
“So far the usual weekly open bid has lifted price,” trader Skew said in one of his latest posts on X.
Skew noted that the price had held the 21-period exponential moving average (EMA) on four-hour timeframes and highlighted two key levels to start the week: $90,000 and $91,300.
“It’d be great to see an aggressive spike to $95k-96k over the coming week,” fellow trader CrypNuevo said in a dedicated X thread over the weekend.
CrypNuevo suggested that large-volume traders may seek to liquidate newcomers closer to $100,000, resulting in more market flux before that significant psychological price barrier is reached.
“Main liquidation lvl is up, but it’d also make sense to spike up near $100k without fully reaching there, and then reverse down,” he wrote.
“Why? Because many new traders will come to the market for first time FOMOing with longs and spot buys. Easy preys.”
To the downside, $87,000 needs to hold if the market shows signs of consolidation, he added.
Others are looking to “buy the dip” on BTC even in the event of a deeper retracement. For trader Crypto Chase, suitable entries come in the form of intraday “gaps” between daily candle wicks.
“We will EVENTUALLY pullback into a Daily gap. In bullish conditions, the first gap is the one to buy. Still have 30% of my long open from 85K~. Still looking to buy high 83 K’s if offered,” he told X followers.
“The lower gaps should remain unfilled until this market has reversed/turned bearish.”
BTC price weekly close smashes records
For Bitcoin bulls, there is no denying that last week was a historic triumph.
Not only did BTC/USD seal its highest-ever weekly close for a second consecutive time at just under $90,000, but a major BTC price correction to test new support remained off the cards.
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass puts Bitcoin’s weekly gains at 11.8%, with Q4 returns passing 40%.
On a monthly basis, November 2024 remains fairly average in terms of BTC price performance over the past 10 years. Traders, however, say this can still change.
“Historically, this kicks off 300+ days of upside,” trading account CryptoAmsterdam responded on X alongside a comparative chart of Bitcoin bull cycles.
Skew forecasts “a bunch” of new record weekly closes to come, with BTC/USD already attempting to fill the wick, which led to its $93,500 all-time highs on Nov. 13.
“BTC has only just begun its Parabolic Phase in the cycle,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital said, referring to his own long-term BTC price analysis.
“Historically, this phase has lasted on average ~300 days. Bitcoin is only on Day 12 of its Parabolic Phase.”
Questions over Fed’s next rate cut
A relatively cool week for US macroeconomic data belied a brewing divergence over future financial policy.
After recent data showed inflation accelerating in October, the Fed faces a recipe for “stagflation” — rising prices with rising unemployment.
This has led to mixed opinions over whether officials will lower interest rates in December, with the latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool seeing a 35% chance of a pause in rate cuts.
“Lower interest rates were the expectation for consumers as we head into 2025,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter commented over the weekend.
“Now, the Fed seems to be backtracking on the ‘Fed pivot.’ While more rate cuts are coming, inflation will remain elevated.”
Kobeissi noted that the coming week would see earnings from tech giant Nvidia — a potential volatility catalyst for risk assets in itself — along with speaking appearances from seven senior Fed figures.
Joining them is unemployment data on Nov. 21, followed a day later by Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and consumer sentiment reports.
“The Fed’s top priority has been to avoid a situation with both rising unemployment and rising inflation, as seen in the 1970s,” Kobeissi added alongside a chart of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) versus unemployment.
“Has the Fed failed yet again in avoiding stagflation?”
Whales keep stacking amid fraught ETF flows
This month, a tale of mass accumulation by Bitcoin whales and institutional investors is a key factor buoying the bull case.
As Cointelegraph reported, whales have not stopped to breathe as BTC/USD charges through all-time highs and into price discovery.
Both large and small whale entities continue to add to their BTC exposure, data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant confirmed.
When it comes to the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the trend is the same.
“Bitcoin spot ETF holdings have increased significantly since their launch in January, from 629.9K BTC to 1.0545M BTC, representing a growth of 425K BTC,” CryptoQuant contributor MAC_D wrote in one of its Quicktake blog posts on Nov. 18.
“This corresponds to an increase from 3.15% to 5.33% of the total mined supply of 19.78M BTC, a 2.18% surge in just eight months.”
MAC_D suggested that the resulting impact on supply and demand dynamics should force price action higher.
“The dramatic price increases observed in March and November suggest a strong correlation between accumulation and price,” the post added.
“Therefore, as more Bitcoin is accumulated through spot ETFs, we can expect the price to continue its upward trend.”
Data from sources, including UK-based investment firm Farside Investors, reveals volatile conditions for the spot ETFs, with large net inflows followed by conspicuous net outflows last week.
Total net outflows for the two days through Nov. 15 passed $750 million, after Bitcoin’s spike to new all-time highs.
Crypto “FOMO” brings price warning
Crypto social media is “very reliably” flagging the peak of each BTC price run, research says.
Related: Bitcoin breakout or black swan? $90K BTC price lacks gold, stocks high
Analyzing social media volumes for specific terms such as prices, research firm Santiment said that “hype” around the future hits highs alongside price itself.
“Bitcoin’s incredible run has now topped out at a new all-time high price of $93,490,” it said on Nov. 13.
“The hype across social media platforms is calling the tops very reliably, with the biggest signal came as $100K+ BTC price speculation poured in right at the ATH 4 hours ago.”
Santiment added that signs of mass “FOMO” should be taken as a “caution flag,” implying that market upside could reverse.
The latest readings from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index correspondingly show levels of “extreme greed” last seen in the run-up to Bitcoin’s old long-term peak in March.
The Index hit 90/100 on Nov. 17, just five points off classic market turnaround territory.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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