Bitcoin’s weekly RSI, while not yet “oversold,” is now at its lowest level since the start of 2023 — Will a drop to $70,000 mark the BTC price bottom?
Bitcoin has a new $70,000 reversal target as a leading indicator sets new bull market lows.
In X analysis on April 7, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital predicted that BTC/USD could find its floor near old all-time highs from 2021.
History suggests $70,000 should end BTC price dip
Bitcoin can dip as low as $70,000 before recovering and still keep within historical norms, Rekt Capital says.
Considering where the current bull market correction might end up, the analyst used the relative strength index (RSI) indicator to calculate the potential BTC price downside.
“Whenever Bitcoin’s Daily RSI crashed into the sub-28 RSI levels – that wouldn’t necessarily mark out the price bottom. In fact, historically, the actual price bottom would be -0.32% to -8.44% lower than the price when the RSI first bottomed,” he explained.
“Bitcoin is currently forming its second low -2.79% below the first low. A repeat of -8.44% below the first low would see price bottom at ~$70000.”
BTC/USD 1-day chart with RSI data. Source: Rekt Capital/X
The RSI is a classic example of a leading indicator, printing signals that often precede major BTC price trend changes. Regardless of the timeframe used, the 30, 50 and 70 RSI levels are of particular importance. A score below 30 represents “oversold” conditions, while 70 is the line in the sand for “overbought.”
Currently, the daily RSI measures around 38, having rejected at 50. On the weekly chart, RSI is at 43, marking its lowest reading since the start of the bull market in early 2023, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.
BTC/USD 1-week chart with RSI data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Continuing, Rekt Capital added that the price need not extend to $70,000 in order for a long-term bottom to form.
“As a result, historical Daily RSI trends in this cycle suggest anything from current prices to ~$70000 is likely to be the bottom on this correction,” he added.
BTC/USD last traded at $70,000 in early November 2024, while the price level is best known as being around the all-time high from Bitcoin’s previous bull market which ended three years prior.
Macro trend “seriously bad for Bitcoin”
As Cointelegraph reported, $70,000 is a popular target for the current correction, with tools such as the Lowest Price Forward metric giving high odds of that area holding as support.
Related: Black Monday 2.0? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Its creator, network economist Timothy Peterson, nonetheless remains downbeat about the short-term BTC price outlook.
US macroeconomic trends, he warned this week, could “easily” send BTC/USD to the $70,000 mark.
“Seriously bad for Bitcoin,” he wrote on X alongside a chart of the ICE BofA US High Yield.
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