Crypto has found itself in a unique position as a campaign issue in the United States 2024 presidential election.
Many in the industry have backed former US president and Republican nominee Donald Trump, with his pro-crypto policy promises seen as a potential catalyst for industry growth.
With opinion polls suggesting it’s still anyone’s race, crypto traders like Satoshi Flipper argue that a Trump victory hasn’t yet been priced into the crypto market. Satoshi Flipper believes a Republican win would strengthen the ongoing Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoin bull market.
However, as the election nears, prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket have turned in favor of Trump, with his victory probability increasing to around 60%.
The big gap has led to concerns about potential manipulation, but this has been hotly contested by prediction market proponents such as Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour.
Teen Bitcoin (BTC) millionaire Erik Finman told Cointelegraph he is highly optimistic about a Trump election win, believing it would turn the US into a pro-crypto environment, leading to a significant influx of investment in the crypto markets. Finman argued, “His policies will ignite the crypto market, fueling massive growth across the board.”
“If Trump wins, I believe Bitcoin could hit $100,000 during his second term.”
Pseudonymous crypto market analyst and trader Crypto Rand told Cointelegraph, “The most bullish aspect of the Trump administration is simply his non-hostile stance toward cryptocurrencies. This attitude alone is a game-changer and sets the US up to be a leader in the crypto space.”
Not everyone is convinced, such as American businessman and Shark Tank star Mark Cuban, who has lobbied Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign for more crypto-friendly policies. He told Cointelegraph that if Trump wins, the crypto markets will likely “pump for a few weeks” before descending again. He argued that Trump’s economic policies are inflationary, which could hinder Bitcoin price action.
Will Trump’s pro-crypto policies boost Bitcoin and altcoins?
Trump has promised many pro-crypto policies that appeal to crypto single-issue voters.
One of the big ones is that he has repeatedly asserted that he would fire US Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler “on day one” of his presidency.
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Experts say while he may not be able to do this directly, he could likely demote Gensler to a mere commissioner and then nominate a new candidate aligned with his policy preferences. Still, the US Senate would have the final say.
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Basel Ismail, CEO of investment analytics platform Blockcircle, said a new SEC chair supportive of crypto would bolster Bitcoin’s adoption and pave the way for a resurgence of altcoins.
Several altcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) awaiting SEC approval were filed prior to the US elections, with XRP (XRP) and Solana (SOL) emerging as potential frontrunners.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas previously told Cointelegraph that Trump could appoint “a new SEC commissioner who doesn’t care” about the processes followed in recent years, where futures data has played a crucial role in the spot ETF approval process. He concluded:
“If Trump wins, we could see other coins as ETFs, in my opinion.”
Trump’s pro-crypto promises are numerous and ambitious, with a stated vision for the US to become “the world capital of crypto.” Crypto Rand believes that while Trump’s commitment to creating a crypto advisory council may have flown under the radar, it is highly significant.
He believes Congress and the SEC have repeatedly demonstrated their lack of understanding of the crypto industry and its dynamics. A proper commission with industry experts would help advise and create more appropriate regulations.
Finman said Trump’s commitment to reducing regulatory hurdles would liberate the crypto industry, attracting significant investments in crypto companies.
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, believes that clarifying the regulations around cryptocurrencies could benefit altcoins more than Bitcoin.
He argued that Bitcoin’s current high market dominance is linked to its favorable regulation compared to altcoins. If Trump were to implement his proposed crypto policies, altcoins could potentially surge and even outperform Bitcoin.
Finman believes that Trump’s election would be a “rising tide that lifts all boats,” but Crypto Rand thinks gains would be concentrated in artificial intelligence and decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN), saying they’re “the ones with more odds to lead the market pump.”
Ismail said that decentralized finance (DeFi) and memecoins markets would benefit from Trump’s victory, as Trump has been actively promoting his new DeFi project, World Liberty Financial (WLFI), which is to be integrated with Aave.
And Trump is something of a walking meme himself. Ismail pointed out that Trump “holds multiple memecoins in his personal wallets,” having received many of them through airdrops.
How will his non-crypto policies affect crypto?
Some observers believe that Trump’s broader economic policies could also benefit the crypto space. Finman said that lowering capital gains taxes would boost investment incentives, fueling growth in the crypto industry.
However, not all of his proposals are likely to help crypto, argued Cuban. He thinks Trump’s economic policies are inflationary and would harm crypto, especially the unprecedented tariffs he would apply in the US.
On Oct. 15, Trump called tariffs “the most beautiful word in the dictionary” at The Economic Club of Chicago. He doubled down on his promise to apply at least a 10% blanket tariff on all imports and tariffs as high as 60% on goods from China.
Cuban believes that Trump’s tariffs would increase inflation, eventually “causing interest rates to go up, which hurts crypto.”
Will Trump continue his pro-crypto stance?
Trump may now portray himself as pro-crypto, but long-time observers of the crypto market will remember that he didn’t support Bitcoin or altcoins during his former presidential term.
At the time, he said crypto was “based on thin air” and even called it a scam on Fox News.
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Finman said that Trump “was born around World War II, so it’s understandable he didn’t get Bitcoin at first.” He believes Trump’s sudden U-turn may be positive, as it demonstrates “he’s persuadable” as well as “open-minded and willing to adapt when presented with new information.”
Crypto Rand conceded that Trump’s embrace of crypto may not be completely sincere and views it as “opportunistic” — Trump has seized a huge opportunity to gather new support and another source of campaign funds.
However, “Trump has proven several times to be an excellent businessman,” said Crypto Rand, and “adapting to new trends, changing your mind and identifying upcoming world-changing industries is part of the required skillset.”
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