The Bitcoin (BTC) price, last trading in the $36,700s, continues to take a breather after breaking out to fresh yearly highs near $38,000 last week, as investors book profits ahead of the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday.
Risk sentiment in traditional financial markets has been bolstered in recent weeks, with US stocks rising and US bond yields generally falling in November on bets that recent weak US data will force the US Federal Reserve to end its interest rate tightening cycle, despite official from the US central bank continually warning in recent weeks that more hikes remain on the table.
That has meant macro has been an added tailwind for crypto assets in November, with the market already benefitting from optimism about expected near-term approvals of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US, and on BlackRock’s plans to file for a spot Ethereum ETF.
Tuesday’s headline US CPI figures are expected to show a dip in YoY price rises to 3.3% from 3.7% in September and MoM price rises to just 0.1% from 0.4% which, if confirmed, should keep alive optimism that US inflation remains headed in the right direction.
That could keep macro as a tailwind for Bitcoin at a time when ETF optimism also remains strong, as evidenced by the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) discount to its net asset value (i.e. the spot value of its Bitcoin holdings) falling to its lowest level since 2021 around 10%, as per YCharts data.
News that high profile investor Cathie Woods’ ARK Invest sold over $6 million in GBTC should not be taken as a bearish sign for the market, but just the fact that Wood’s investment vehicle is booking profits after snapping up GBTC when its discount to actual BTC was close to 50% earlier this year.
Price Prediction – Here Are the Key Bitcoin (BTC) Levels to Watch
As Bitcoin attempts to cling onto the $37,000 level ahead of key macro events later in the week, here are some of the key levels to watch.
To the downside, there is the early November intra-day high at $36,000, which may also coincide with a short-term uptrend and the 21-Day Moving Average (DMA) if Bitcoin was to test this level in around one week.
That could prove to be a strong area of short-term support, but if a near-term downtrend was to extend a little, traders would then focus their attention to longer-term support levels at $34,300, $33,00 and either side of $32,000, whose significance dates back as far as January 2022.
While JP Morgan recently made the argument the crypto rally is looking overdone, most other analysts seem to disagree.
Aside from the fact that BTC may continue to benefit from optimism about near-term spot ETF approvals, as well as potentially from an improving macro backdrop, analysts have been increasingly noting how well Bitcoin has followed its historic, roughly four-year market cycle in 2023.
Trading.biz analyst Cory Mitchell commented in a note shared with members of the crypto press last week that Bitcoin could hit new all-time highs as soon as mid-2024, a more than 85% rally from current levels.
“Bitcoin uptrends tend to move quickly once they get going, moving hundreds of percent often in less than a year,” he noted, calling this stage of the market “the acceleration phase”.
The “really big gains” historically come a year and a half after Bitcoin price has bottomed, Mitchell explained, which points to a pump coming sometime around mid-2024, with BTC having last bottomed back in November 2022.
“In 2013, bitcoin rallied 1200% in approximately 100 days… in 2017, it rallied 1900% in just under a year… in late 2020, it rallied 400% in about 140 days”.
In the medium-term, price predictions thus look to set to remain bullish, with bulls set to target tests of the 2022 highs above $48,000, perhaps before the end of 2023.
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