The Bitcoin price jumped back into the $29,000s on Monday and, according to some exchanges, hit its highest level since June 2022 in the $29,300s (some exchanges had the BTC price remaining just below its February 24 high).
Though volumes remain lower than usual for a Monday given the closure of most major traditional asset markets in Europe and the Americas for the Easter holiday, Bitcoin is nonetheless on course to post its largest one-day gain in nearly two weeks.
At the time of writing, BTC was last changing hands in the $29,200s, up over 3% on the day with slightly over $18 billion having traded across major exchanges, as per CoinGecko data.
That means Bitcoin is up around 75% since the start of the year, making it one of the best-performing of all major assets this year.
In terms of what drove Monday’s rally, analysts were unable to agree on any one specific catalyst.
Some cited comments by the CEO of Coinbase on Twitter, who hinted the firm plans to integrate the Bitcoin lightning network into its exchange platform.
Others cited the news of Bitget’s announcement of a new $100 million Asia-focused web3 fund that could help boost the Asia adoption narrative in the coming months.
Meanwhile, some pointed to technical factors, with moves exacerbated by thin liquidity and market depth.
Bitcoin Breaks Out of Key Short-Term Pennant
Prior to Monday’s move, the BTC price had been consolidating within the confines of a pennant structure that had been in play going all the way back to mid-March.
The catalyst for Monday’s price jump could well have been an upside break of this pennant structure.
Beyond a test of the prior annual highs in the $29,300s, the Bitcoin bulls’ next price target will be the psychologically important $30,000 level.
Price Prediction – Where Next for the BTC Price?
Positive technicals mean that Bitcoin certainly seems set up to hit $30,000 in the very near future.
The cryptocurrency has continually found support at its 21-Day Moving Average in recent days and all of its major moving averages are pointing higher.
Moreover, the 14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is yet to move into overbought territory and Bitcoin seems to have maintained momentum since its strong bounce from the 200DMA (and realized price) in mid-March.
Technical tailwinds from the “golden cross” (when the 50DMA moved above the 200DMA) also continue to seemingly offer support.
A break above $30,000 would open the door to a near-term test of the late-May 2022 highs around $32,500, another 10% up versus current levels.
Bitcoin Bulls Beware – Macro Risks Could Spoil the Party
But a number of major macro risk factors could spoil the party for the bulls this week.
Traders should be keeping an eye on this week’s US CPI, PPI, Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment figures, as well as on the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting, and on comments from various Fed policymakers.
Markets (including crypto and traditional) seem to be paying closer attention to data right now, rather than what the Fed is saying – indeed, markets are ignoring Fed policymakers’ statements that rate hikes this year are unlikely, and continue to bet that an aggressive rate cutting cycle will start later this year after one final rate hike next month.
Bitcoin bulls will want to see evidence that inflation continues to drop quickly back toward the Fed’s 2.0% target (which the CPI data is expected to show).
Somewhat perversely, the Bitcoin price might also respond positively to any data showing weakness in the US consumer (if the retail sales and consumer sentiment data comes out weak).
That’s because this would raise recession risks and make a Fed-cutting cycle more likely.
The unofficial start of the US Q1 2023 earning season also kicks off this week as a number of major banks report earnings.
All of the above have the prospect of either adding fresh tailwinds or triggering a reversal of Monday’s move.
While it’s definitely a positive start to the week, Bitcoin bulls shouldn’t look too much into Monday’s price action, nor should they declare victory for the week just yet.
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