The ICO London Investment Plans.

In our recent “First Thoughts” article about ICO London (that you can read here), we introduced the company’s investment plans as follows:

For the online investor, ICO London offers two investment plans.  They both are based on working days and return your investment as part of your earnings.  One plan pays earnings daily for a period of 21 working days while the second pays earnings in a lump sum at the end of seven working days.  There is a logical advantage to only providing earnings on working days as, in most situations, these are the only days on which a company generates revenue.  This would appear to be wise thinking on the part of the program administrators with respect to the long-term survivability of the program.

Here is what the website says about the two investment plans in tabular form:

110% after 7 working days
0.005 – 15 BTC

7% daily for 21 working days
0.005 – 15 BTC

The two investment programs are easy enough to understand except for the fact that they run for business days rather than calendar days.  Usually, we think in terms of calendar days.  So, the first thing we should do is to come up with a way to roughly convert business days to calendar days.  This is easy enough to do if you remember that, typically, there are around 22 business days per 30-day month.  This gives us a conversion factor of 30/22 or around 1.36 if we want to convert business days to calendar days.  That tells us that the 21 working day investment plan is roughly 29 calendar days long (21 x 1.36) and that the seven working day plan is roughly 10 days long (7 x 1.36).  I fully realize that it is possible to come up with situations where these numbers are off by a day.  But, we only need them for some ESTIMATES that we will make in the next section of this Review.  They are more than accurate enough for that purpose.

Analysis of the ICO London Investment Plans.

A nice thing about these two investment plans is that their investment limits are the same.  In a nutshell, just about any investment is OK with either plan.  The low limit of 0.005 BTC is roughly $30 – $40.  The upper limit of 15 BTC is sky high.  We strongly recommend that no one ever invest this much money with ANY online high yield investment program.  So, if you can handle the lower limit, you are in business for either investment plan.

First, let’s determine how long it takes for each of these investment plans to break even.  For the seven working day plan, this is simple because you don’t receive ANY return until the end of the plan.  So, that plan breaks even in seven working days or in roughly 10 calendar days.  For the 21 working day plan, if you divide 100% by the 7% that you recover every working day, you find out that the plan breaks even in around 15 working days.  Using our 1.36 conversion factor, this is equivalent to around 20 working days (15 x 1.36).  Again, these are approximations.  In summary,

7 working day plan.     Break even in 7 working days (10 calendar days)
21 working day plan.     Break even in 15 working days (20 calendar days)

Next, let’s determine the average daily net interest (DNI) for each of the two investment plans.  Remember that net interest is profit.  So, we are talking about the total profit that each of these plans pays averaged out over the length of the plan.  In this case, the average is taken over the number of CALENDAR days.  This is the approach we take in EmilyNews and we will not be able to compare the results of this Review with our other work unless we use the same method of calculation.  You have to compare apples to apples — not apples to oranges.

For the seven-day plan, your total gross interest is 110%.  Subtracting 100% from this because it includes your investment, your total net interest will be 10%.  Dividing this by the 10 calendar-day length of the plan, we come up with an approximate DNI of around 1%.   For the 21-day investment plan, you multiply the daily interest of 7% by the 21 working days in the plan to get 147%, the total gross interest paid by the plan.  Subtracting 100% from this because it includes your investment, you come up with 47% as the total net interest.  Finally, dividing this by the 29 calendar day length of the plan, you come up with a DNI of 1.62%.  In summary,

7 working day plan.     DNI = 1%
21 working day plan.     DNI = 1.62%

Discussion.

Perhaps most important to the online investor is the profitability of an investment plan.  So, let’s talk about that first.  The 7 working day plan averages around 1% profit per calendar day.  That comes to around 7% for a calendar week.  The 21 day working plan averages around 1.62% profit which comes out to around 11.3% per calendar week.  For the average online investor, profit at these levels is probably just about right.  It isn’t so low that the program really doesn’t qualify as an HYIP.  On the other hand, it isn’t so high that the investor will constantly be biting his nails anticipating that the program might close at any minute.

If you refer back to the article in HYIP Insights #12 (that you can read here), we discussed the relationship of DNI to the likelihood that a program might survive in the long term.  Here’s what we suggested as guidelines in this article:

DNI less than 1%.     High likelihood of long-term survival
DNI greater than 2%.     Low likelihood of long-term survival
DNI between 1% and 2%.  Program could go either way depending on many factors

Well, the DNIs for these two investment plans are sort of in the “sweet spot”.  They aren’t so high that the survivability of the overall program is seriously at risk.  Yet they are still high enough for the investor to earn a very satisfactory return.

Which investment plan is the best?  The 21 working day plan is a clear winner from the point of view of profitability.  The chief drawback to this plan is that you won’t break even for around 20 calendar days — compared to around 10 calendar days for the 7 working day plan.  In favor of the 21 working day plan is the fact that your investment is being returned to you every working day whereas, in the 7 working day plan, you don’t see any return at all until the end of the plan.  This is a serious disadvantage to this type of plan.  So, there are pros and cons associated with each of the plans.  The decision of which way to go will probably depend on the “investment personality” of the investor.

Conclusions.

ICO London offers two investment plans.  One pays interest daily on working days for the life of the investment plan.  The other pays interest after the plan ends.  The investment limits for both of the plans is the same.  The interest paid by both of the plans is in a sensible range that provides a satisfactory return while not jeopardizing the long-term survival of the overall program.  As discussed above, there are pros and cons to each plan and all of them should be considered before making an investment with this program.

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