Analysis of the Snowbit Investment Plans.

As we indicated in the “First Thoughts” article that we published about Snowbit a few days ago, the company has only one investment plan.  It’s what we refer to as a “perpetual” plan because it pays interest forever; the plan does not have a finite term.  Much like a conventional bank account, your deposit will continue to earn money for you for as long as the program survives.  However, unlike a bank account, it appears that you cannot withdraw your deposit.  So, your success as an investor with this company depends on it being around long enough for you to at least break even.  Ideally, you would like the program to be around for a lot longer than that!

All business transacted with Snowbit is by means of Bitcoin.  Deposits, withdrawals, earnings — everything.  Investors should keep this in mind, especially when dealing with small amounts of money, as the transaction fees for Bitcoin are substantial.  I am not up to date on this.  However, my feeling is that transactions of less than $100 might lose a significant part of the transaction due to fees.  You should research that carefully before doing business with Snowbit.

The Snowbit investment plan is divided into six parts which depend on the size of your deposit.  Larger deposits earn a higher daily interest.  Here’s the breakdown as it appears in the website:

.0010 BTC – 0.0300 BTC.     1.50% daily
.0301 BTC – 0.1500 BTC.     3.50% daily
.1501 BTC – 0.3000 BTC.     5.50% daily
.3001 BTC – 1.0000 BTC.    6.25% daily
1.0010 BTC – 10.0000 BTC.   6.50% daily
10.0010 BTC – 30.0000 BTC.     7.00% daily

I don’t think too well “in Bitcoin.”  So, let’s convert these numbers to dollars to clarify the amounts of money we are talking about.  Assuming that one Bitcoin is worth around $8,000, this chart would roughly convert to the following:

Part #1.  $8 – $240.     1.50% daily
Part #2.  $240 – $1,200.     3.50% daily
Part #3.  $1,200 – $2,400.     5.50% daily
Part #4.  $2,400 – $8,000.     6.25% daily
Part #5.  $8,000 – $80,000.     6.50% daily
Part #6.  $80,000 – $240,000.     7.00% daily

As you can see, I’ve added a “Part” number to each subdivision of the investment plan — simply to make things easier to talk about.  And, please remember that the dollar amounts in the preceding chart are approximate — simply to clarify your thinking in case, like me, you don’t think to clearly “in Bitcoin.”

Looking at this chart, a number of things should jump out at you.  First of all, the investment limits for Parts #5 and #6 are pretty much “off the chart.”  We would not advise anyone to invest these amounts of money in ANY online investment program unless, possibly, the program provided verifiable information about the activities of the company and its financial performance.  Possibly, the investment limits for Part #4 are even too high for our type of online investment.  I am going to assume that this is the case and, in what follows, I’m only going to refer to the first three parts of the Snowbit investment plan.

In the foregoing, I indicated that, since your deposit doesn’t appear to be returned to you, it is important that you break even before the program closes.  So, let’s calculate the breakeven points for the three parts of the investment plan that we are talking about.  This is easy to do as all you have to do is divide 100% by the percent of your deposit that you are recovering on a daily basis.  For Part #1 of the investment plan, this comes to 67 days (100/1.5).  If you do the same arithmetic for the next two parts of the investment plan, you get the following:

Part #1.  67 days
Part #2.  29 days
Part #3.  19 days

From the point of view of safety, we suggest that a person NOT invest in plans that break even in greater than one month (please see HYIP Insights #21 for a discussion of this).  With that in mind, Part #1 might not be a good choice; Part #2 would be borderline; and, Part #3 would probably be a good choice — if you can afford the minimum investment of around $1,200.

In order to discuss the profitability and survivability of an investment program, we take a look at a quantity that we at Emily News refer to as DNI — the daily net interest that an investment plan offers.  This is simply the average daily profit that you earn from an investment plan over its duration.

In the case of a “perpetual” investment program, you have to ASSUME a program life since none are given.  So, we will assume a number of DIFFERENT lifetimes for these investment plans and calculate the DNI for each of them.  We’ll start with 60 days and increase by 30-day intervals after that.  Of course, Part #1 of the plan won’t be making a profit till we reach 90 days.  We’ll do the calculation together for a few cases and then I’ll just show the results for additional cases.  You can verify them by doing the same arithmetic as we did for the example cases that we worked out together.

OK, let’s start with Part #2 and assume that the program runs for 60 days.  At 3.5% gross daily interest, your total gross interest for that period would be 210% (3.5 x 60).  Subtracting 100% from this to account for the fact that this includes your deposit, your total net interest would be 110%.  Finally, dividing this by the 60-day assumed length of the plan, you get an average daily net interest, or DNI, of 1.83% (110/60).  For Part #3 that pays a daily gross interest of 5.5%, your total gross interest after 60 days would be 330% (5.5 x 60).  Subtracting 100%, you get a total net interest of 230% and, finally, dividing this by the 60-day assumed length of the plan, you get a DNI of 3.83%.  Repeating this arithmetic for assumed 90-day and 120-day lengths of the program (and also for 30-days for Plans #2 and #3), you would get the following results:

DNI for Different Program Lengths

30 days                 60 days                 90 day                   120 days

Part #1                  —–                        —–                       0.39%                    0.67%
Part #2                  0.17%                    1.83%                    2.39%                    2.67%
Part #3                  2.17%                    3.83%                    4.39%                    4.47%

Looking at these numbers, it is obvious that Parts #2 and #3 are MUCH more profitable than Part #1.  After 90 days, for Part #1 you are earning a daily profit of less than 0.5% whereas, in Part #3, your daily profit is almost 4.5%.  That’s over 30% per week — which is phenomenal.  After 120 days, of course, your profits increase even more.  If we had worked out these numbers for a year or so, we would find that the limiting values for DNI would be the daily gross interest that is paid for each part of the investment plan.

These results merit some serious discussion.  So, rather than make this review excessively long, I think it would probably be best if we put this discussion off till a second part for the review.  At least some of what we will say about the Snowbit investment plan will probably apply to almost ANY “perpetual” investment plan.  So, it will be important.  Please stay tuned…

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