Data shows traders bought the Bitcoin price dip, but $2.78 billion in selling by larger entities completely overshadowed the bulls. Can BTC hold above $86,000?
Bitcoin dropped below $86,000 on Monday, continuing to expand on a liquidity imbalance as smaller participants continued to buy dips. However, large holders are using the demand to exit positions, keeping downside pressure firmly in place.
Key takeaways:
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Retail and mid-sized Bitcoin wallets purchased $474 million in cumulative buy-side volume, while whales sold $2.78 billion during the same period.
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Short-term BTC holders continued to sell at a loss, a sign of capitulation, but a reversal has not been confirmed.
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Bitcoin could re-test quarterly lows at $80,600 after invalidating its short-term bull trend.
Whales dominate the sell-side as retail bets on a bottom
Order flow data from Hyblock Capital highlighted a sharp divergence in behavior across participant classes. Retail traders or wallets ($0–$10,000) have accumulated a cumulative volume delta of $169 million, consistently bidding into the downtrend. Mid-sized participants ($1,000–$100,000) also built a $305 million net spot position as they attempted to front-run a recovery.
However, whale wallets ($100,000–$10 million) remain the dominant force, with a negative $2.78 billion in cumulative volume delta. The combined buying power of retail and mid-sized traders is insufficient to absorb institutional-scale distribution.
This results in a liquidity mismatch where smaller players interpret sub-$100,000 prices as a discount, while large holders treat the same zone as an opportunity to reduce exposure.
Meanwhile, onchain analyst Axel Adler Jr pointed to the short-term holder spent output profit-ratio (seven-day SMA) slipping below 1, currently hovering near 0.99. This indicated that coins held for less than 155 days are, on average, being sold at a loss.
Historically, such conditions have aligned with local capitulation phases, when selling pressure peaks. However, Adler emphasized that stress alone is not a reversal signal. A sustained recovery can begin after SOPR reclaims and holds above 1, confirming that demand has started to absorb supply.
Related: Bitcoin sees ‘pure manipulation’ as US sell-off liquidates $200M in an hour
Bitcoin open to revisit lower liquidity targets
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s structure has weakened further. BTC’s price has broken down from a rising wedge pattern, sweeping the monthly VWAP (volume-weighted average price) before printing a bearish break of structure (BOS) below $87,600.
With the short-term bullish trend invalidated, BTC now faces downside targets near prior liquidity pools or external liquidity.
The immediate targets remain the $83,800 swing low, with a deeper retracement toward the $80,600 quarterly lows possible if sell pressure persists. For now, both order flow and onchain signals suggest that patience is required before declaring a durable bottom.
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