The Monelo Investment Plan.

In our recent “First Thoughts” article about Monelo, we gave what I think is a complete description of the company’s investment plan.  For your reference, I’ll repeat what we said in that article here…

For the online investor, Monelo offers a single investment plan.  It is what we refer to as a “perpetual” investment plan, meaning that you make a deposit once and you continue to earn interest on your deposit forever.  You can also withdraw your deposit at any time after a 24-hour waiting period, after which interest payments will naturally stop.  There is a fee of 10% of your deposit in order to withdraw it.  In short, the investment plan functions very much like a normal bank account.  However, as you would expect, since it is an HYIP, the interest that you can earn from the Monelo investment plan is much higher than you can earn from a bank account.  The plan pays 3% on business days and 1% on weekends.  The minimum investment is 0.005 BTC, around \$45.

Analysis of the Monelo Investment Plan.

A complicating factor when analyzing the Monelo investment plan is that the interest return is different on business days and on weekends.  Let’s make a simplification and, instead of using two different interest rates, we’ll work with the AVERAGE daily return that the plan pays you.  Since you receive 3% for five days and 1% for two days, the total return that you receive for a week will be 17%.  This averages out to 2.43% (17/7).

Now, to determine roughly how long it will take you to break even with this investment plan, you divide 100% by this average daily return to get around 42 days.  This might be off a day or two depending on what day of the week you make your investment.  However, let’s try to keep the big picture in mind.  When you’re talking about roughly 42 days, a day or two really isn’t very important.

Since the Monelo investment plan is a “perpetual” plan, we get into trouble when trying to determine the average daily net interest (DNI) that you will earn from the plan.  This occurs because DNI is the total interest that you will earn over the LIFE of an investment plan divided by the number or calendar days in the plan.  Well, since you don’t know the life of the plan, it is really impossible to make this calculation.  Every “perpetual” HYIP that we have reviewed has ultimately closed and, in the case of the Monelo plan, the investor can elect to leave the plan whenever he chooses.

So, the best that we can do is to ASSUME a lifetime for the plan.  We’ll make a number of such assumptions, all based on the further assumption that the investor has broken even — in other words that the program has survived for more than 42 days after the person make his deposit.  Specifically, we’ll compute DNI for assumed program lifetimes of 45, 60, 75, 90, 120, 150, 180, and 360 days.

OK, beginning with an assumed investment period of 45 days and using the average return of 2.43%, if you multiply the two quantities, you get a total gross return of 109.35%.  However, this includes your investment.  So, you must subtract 100% to get your total net return, which will be 9.35%.  Finally, averaging this out over the assumed 45-day length of the plan by dividing by 45, you get an average daily net interest (DNI) of around 0.21%.  This means that, if the program closes or you decide to withdraw your deposit 45 days after you make the deposit, your net profit will average out to around 0.21% per day.  Remember that, when you withdraw your deposit, you will also have to pay a fee equal to 10% of your deposit.  The point of this calculation is that, if for some reason you stop participating in the investment plan this early, you essentially will do little more than break even.

Moving up to an assumed period of 60 days (two months), if you do the same calculations, you will find that you wind up with a DNI of 0.76% — around three fourths of a percent per day or around 5% per week.  So, you can see that if you participate in the investment plan for two months or so, your earnings will start to become more serious.

Well, if you do these same calculations for the other assumed lifetimes of the program, you will get the following results:

• Assumed Program Lifetime    DNI
• 45 days                                    0.21%
• 60 days                                    0.76%
• 75 days                                    1.10%
• 90 days                                    1.32%
• 120 days                                  1.60%
• 150 days                                  1.76%
• 180 days                                  1.87%
• 360 days                                  2.15%

These results of our analysis are quite interesting.  However, lest we get ahead of ourselves, I’ll refrain from discussing these numbers further until Part 2 of this review which we should be able to publish in the next day or two.  Please stay tuned…

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