The Investment Plans.
As we indicated in our “First Thoughts” on Roly Investment a few days ago (that you can read here), this is another business that is involved in cryptocurrency trading. Operated by a group of traders that are retired from more conventional trading, they have now pooled their expertise to trade crytpocurrencey pairs.
Roly has three investment plans. However, they really merge together into one as their only difference is that the amount invested determines the interest that is paid — and this determines the plan. However, to be consistent with the website presentation, I will list them as three independent plans. The plans have a number of things in common:
- They are all one year long.
- They return your deposit at the end of the investment term (one year later).
- The yield of each plan can vary between a minimum and maximum and depends on the success of the company’s trading for the previous month.
- All transactions are in Bitcoin.
Supposedly all deposits are insured. Here is the statement from the website: “Insurance is automatically activated after purchase of the package. The capital is guaranteed by the Roly Investment Fund. The insurance costs 5% of the stated yield. If desired, you can deactivate the insurance.” I’m not convinced that these insurance programs really work. If an HYIP closes, it frequently disappears — completely! How can a person get in touch with Roly Investment to make a claim then?
Here is a summary of key information for the three investment plans:
0.001 – 0.99 BTC
Monthly yield of 21% – 25%
1.0 – 4.9 BTC
Monthly yield of 26% – 29%
5.0 – 20.0 BTC
Monthly yield of 32% – 35%
Analysis of the Investment Plans.
Assuming that one Bitcoin is roughly equal to $4,000, it is probable that there will be very few investors in the Exclusive plan. I suspect that there will be almost none in the Roly plan with a minimum investment of five Bitcoin. So, it looks like almost all investment activity will be in the Standard plan.
Let’s take a more careful look at this plan. First of all, the interest paid is variable. To simplify that end of things, let’s use the middle rate of 23% per month. Distributing this over one month, a 30 day period, we have the equivalent of a daily net interest, or DNI, of 0.77% (23/30). Note that I indicated this is a NET interest (profit) because your deposit will be returned to you at the end of the investment plan.
Of course, you won’t be seeing ANY profit until you break even. Dividing 100% by 0.77%, the daily percent that you receive, you find that it takes around 130 days (100/.77) to break even. This is somewhat over four months. Of course, we could have obtained this same number much more quickly by dividing 100% by the assumed monthly interest of 23% to get 4.35 months (100/23).
I converted everything to daily interest so that we could talk about DNI. Referring back to HYIP Insights #12 (which you can read here), we made suggestions for the sustainability of a program based on DNI. You can see that, since the value for the investment plan of 0.77% is less than 1%, the guidelines we suggested in that article would put this investment plan in the category of one that could probably be sustainable in the long run.
OK, let’s take a look at how much money you could earn in the one year period of this investment plan. That’s an easy calculation. For a monthly interest rate of 23%, the total net interest earned in one year would be 12 times this or 276%. In addition, your principal would be returned at the end of the year for a total gross return of 376%.
Taking a quick look at the Exclusive and Roly investment plans, and again using the middle interest rate, we can come up with the same type of information for these two plans as we did for the Standard plan. Following is the result of that arithmetic:
Mean monthly interest rate = 27.5%
DNI = 0.77%
Total net interest = 276%
Mean monthly interest rate = 27.5%
DNI = 0.92%
Total net interest = 330%
Mean monthly interest rate = 33.5%
DNI = 1.12%
Total net interest = 402%
The DNIs for both the Exclusive and Roly plans are also quite reasonable. So, these plans, likewise, have the potential to be long term survivors. Again, I note that the minimum investments for these plans (especially the Roly plan!) are quite high. So, there will probably be few investors in either of these plans. From the point of view of survivability of the overall program, this is helpful as most of the payouts that the company will make will be for the lowest interest paying investment plan.
In all these discussions, it is important to keep in mind the fact that we are using estimated interest rates. Returns could be higher or lower than what these calculations tell us. It all would depend on whether Roly has a good month or a bad one…
We will continue this analysis of the Roly Investment program investment plans in Part 2 of this review. Stay tuned…
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