{"id":57021,"date":"2026-04-20T04:02:23","date_gmt":"2026-04-20T04:02:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/emilynews.com\/blog\/?p=57021"},"modified":"2026-04-20T04:02:23","modified_gmt":"2026-04-20T04:02:23","slug":"2024-btc-cycle-dramatically-underperforming-previous-halvings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/emilynews.com\/blog\/?p=57021","title":{"rendered":"2024 BTC cycle ‘dramatically’ underperforming previous halvings?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Volatility and upside have been declining with each Bitcoin halving cycle, but the new dynamics may not be permanent, according to Galaxy’s Alex Thorn.<\/p>\n

The current Bitcoin (BTC) market cycle is \u201cdramatically\u201d weaker than the three previous cycles, according to Alex Thorn, the head of firmwide research at investment firm Galaxy.<\/p>\n

Thorn compared price action since the April 2024 Bitcoin halving to cycles triggered in 2012, 2016 and 2020; the current cycle shows significantly dampened volatility and lower upside. The all-time high above $125,000 on Oct. 5, 2025 was only 97% above the 2024 halving price around $63,000.<\/p>\n

BTC\u2019s price increased by about 9,294% during the 2012 halving cycle, reaching a high of about $1,163, and climbed by about 2,950% during the 2016 halving cycle, reaching a high of about $19,891. The 2020 halving saw a price increase of about 761%.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
A comparison of Bitcoin\u2019s price action in previous halving cycles. Source: <\/em>Alex Thorn<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\u00a0<\/div>\n

\u201cCycle four is dramatically underperforming prior cycles,\u201d Thorn said in an X post, asking, \u201cIs this the new normal, or is it the new normal until it isn\u2019t?\u201d<\/p>\n

The decreasing volatility in each successive BTC halving cycle suggests that traditional market dynamics are changing and that BTC\u2019s price may start to be influenced more by other factors, rather than the halving or the four-year cycle market theory.<\/p>\n

The 30-day Bitcoin Volatility Index, which spiked to 9.64% on April 2, 2020, has not been above 3.11% in the current cycle, a reading last tipped on Aug. 24, 2024. At last look, the latest 30-day estimate for that volatility gauge is 1.75%, according to Bitbo data.<\/p>\n

Related: <\/strong><\/em>Bitcoin bull run \u2018still too early\u2019 to call as demand lags exiting capital: Analyst<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Critics say current cycle performance ignores the premature all-time high before 2024\u2019s halving<\/h2>\n

BTC reached what was then the all-time high above the $70,000 level in March 2024 \u2014 one month before the April 2024 halving.<\/p>\n

The approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States in January 2024 was the primary catalyst for the price pump.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
The price of BTC hit an all-time high before the April 2024 halving. Source: TradingView<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\u00a0<\/div>\n

This historic anomaly of BTC hitting a new all-time high before the halving skewed the current cycle\u2019s price performance, critics of Thorn\u2019s analysis said.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin drawdowns have also become less severe, as volatility has declined, according to Fidelity Digital Assets.<\/p>\n

Previous Bitcoin bear markets have seen declines between 80% and 90%, according to Zack Wainwright, a Fidelity Digital Assets research analyst.<\/p>\n

However, Bitcoin\u2019s crash to $60,000 from the all-time high above $125,000 represents a decline just north of 50%, Fidelity\u2019s analysis noted.<\/p>\n

In March, Jan van Eck, CEO of asset management company VanEck, said that BTC is close to bottoming out and that he expects the price to begin gradually rising again in 2026.\u00a0<\/p>\n

At last look, the biggest crypto was trading at about $74,703, up almost 5% in the last seven days, according to TradingView data.<\/p>\n

This article is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research before making any decisions.<\/p>\n

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Volatility and upside have been declining with each Bitcoin halving cycle, but the new dynamics may not be permanent, according to Galaxy’s Alex Thorn. The current Bitcoin (BTC) market cycle is \u201cdramatically\u201d weaker than the … 2024 BTC cycle ‘dramatically’ underperforming previous halvings?<\/span>Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":57023,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5651,6],"tags":[139,3544,3812,10,159,97],"class_list":["post-57021","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptonews","category-information","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-cryptonews","tag-hyip","tag-hyipnews","tag-hyips","exalt-entry"],"yoast_head":"\n2024 BTC cycle 'dramatically' underperforming previous halvings? - EmilyNews<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/emilynews.com\/blog\/?p=57021\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2024 BTC cycle 'dramatically' underperforming previous halvings? - EmilyNews\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Volatility and upside have been declining with each Bitcoin halving cycle, but the new dynamics may not be permanent, according to Galaxy’s Alex Thorn. 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