{"id":55165,"date":"2026-03-27T04:22:09","date_gmt":"2026-03-27T04:22:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/emilynews.com\/blog\/?p=55165"},"modified":"2026-03-27T04:24:18","modified_gmt":"2026-03-27T04:24:18","slug":"bitcoin-gained-655-the-last-time-this-supply-in-profit-metric-dropped-to-50","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/emilynews.com\/blog\/?p=55165","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin gained 655% the last time this supply in profit metric dropped to 50%"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin\u2019s total supply in profit metric fell below 50% in February, a threshold linked to previous BTC accumulation phases. Does data predict a similar outcome?<\/p>\n

The total Bitcoin supply in profit stands at 60.6% on Thursday, continuing to move within a range historically associated with market cycle resets. The metric previously dropped to 50.8% on Feb. 5, its lowest level since January 2, 2023, leaving a large share of holders at breakeven or at a loss.<\/p>\n

Similar conditions in the past cycles have preceded strong upside moves. In January 2023, BTC traded at $16,682 when profitability levels were comparable at 51%, before rallying 655% to $126,000 in 2025.<\/p>\n

A similar setup occurred in March 2020, when the total supply in profit fell below 50% as BTC traded at $6,500, ahead of a move to $69,000 in 2021.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin profitability returns to prior market cycle base levels<\/h2>\n

Over the past five years, the 50\u201360% profitability range has repeatedly marked periods where a large portion of holders sat near the BTC cost basis. That compresses unrealized gains across the network and reduces the incentive to sell into weakness.<\/p>\n

\"Cryptocurrencies,
Bitcoin Supply in Profit (%). Source: CryptoQuant<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

It is important to note that the metric does not pinpoint a price bottom. It outlines a zone where long-term accumulation has led to high returns while the downside sell pressure has eased.<\/p>\n

In past cycles, Bitcoin price bottoms were formed when the long-term holder net unrealized profit\/loss (LTH-NUPL) turned negative, as seen during the 2015, 2018, and 2022 bear markets. This phase marked a period where the long-term investors were holding at a loss.<\/p>\n

However, the current LTH-NUPL reading is near 0.40, which means that the long-term holders are still comfortably in profit, even as the overall supply profitability has dropped near market cycle lows.<\/p>\n

\"Cryptocurrencies,
Bitcoin LTH-NUPL data. Source: CryptoQuant<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

This gap highlights a shift in the market environment. A growing share of Bitcoin supply is now held by corporate entities and spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which collectively control close to 15.8% of the circulating supply, i.e., 3,319,677 BTC.<\/p>\n

These participants typically operate with a longer holding period and lower sensitivity to short-term price swings.<\/p>\n

As a result, the profitability compression across the BTC market does not translate into the same level of forced selling from long-term holders seen in previous cycles in 2015, 2018, and 2022.<\/p>\n

This change helps explain why the total supply in profit may revisit historical accumulation zones while the long-term holder profitability stays elevated.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/div>\n

Related:\u00a0Bitcoin in \u2018later stages\u2019 of bear market: Watch these BTC price levels<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

BTC exchange flows align with valuation models<\/h2>\n

The short-term holder BTC flows to Binance fell to 25,000 BTC on March 25. Crypto analyst Darkfost said it is a new market low, down from roughly 100,000 BTC during the early February sell-off. This decline shows a clear reduction in reactive selling from the newer market participants.<\/p>\n

\"Cryptocurrencies,
Bitcoin STH inflows on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Meanwhile, crypto analyst GugaOnChain noted that the valuation models can help identify where the deeper market stress may emerge for BTC. Metrics such as market-value to realized-value (MVRV) below 1, NUPL under -0.2, and a Puell Multiple near 0.35 have historically appeared during periods of heavy retail pressure and undervalued conditions.<\/p>\n

While these indicators do not predict the exact market bottoms, they highlight zones where downside risk has historically been limited relative to long-term upside, offering a clearer view of overall market positioning.<\/p>\n

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Bitcoin\u2019s total supply in profit metric fell below 50% in February, a threshold linked to previous BTC accumulation phases. Does data predict a similar outcome? The total Bitcoin supply in profit stands at 60.6% on … Bitcoin gained 655% the last time this supply in profit metric dropped to 50%<\/span>Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":55168,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5651,6],"tags":[139,5652,10,159,97],"class_list":["post-55165","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptonews","category-information","tag-bitcoin","tag-emilynews","tag-hyip","tag-hyipnews","tag-hyips","exalt-entry"],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin gained 655% the last time this supply in profit metric dropped to 50% - EmilyNews<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/emilynews.com\/blog\/?p=55165\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bitcoin gained 655% the last time this supply in profit metric dropped to 50% - EmilyNews\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bitcoin\u2019s total supply in profit metric fell below 50% in February, a threshold linked to previous BTC accumulation phases. 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