{"id":54505,"date":"2025-12-12T04:03:20","date_gmt":"2025-12-12T04:03:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/emilynews.com\/blog\/?p=54505"},"modified":"2025-12-12T04:03:21","modified_gmt":"2025-12-12T04:03:21","slug":"prediction-markets-bitcoin-wont-reach-100k-before-years-end","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/emilynews.com\/blog\/?p=54505","title":{"rendered":"Prediction markets: Bitcoin won\u2019t reach $100K before year\u2019s end"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin bull market optimism has suffered since the Oct. 10 crash, as chances of a short-term BTC price rally above $100,000 appeared to be fading.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin <span style=\"font-size: 1rem;\">could remain pinned below $100,000 for the remainder of 2025 as the market weakened following the US Fed rate cut decision on Wednesday.<\/span><\/p>\n<p data-ct-non-breakable=\"undefined\"><strong>Key takeaways:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p data-ct-non-breakable=\"undefined\">BTC price has only a 30% chance of hitting $100,000 before Jan. 1, according to prediction markets.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Bitcoin treasury buying has slowed significantly, hindering short-term recovery attempts.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p data-ct-non-breakable=\"undefined\">Bitcoin faces resistance at $94,000, with an ascending triangle breakout possible to the $98,000 liquidity zone.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>30% chance BTC retakes $100,000 before new year<\/h2>\n<p>The majority of traders on Polymarket and Kalshi expect Bitcoin to remain below the $100,000 mark for the next 21 days.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>As of Dec. 11, Kalshi bettors are pricing in about 34% odds of BTC\u00a0crossing $100,000 before Dec. 31. Polymarket sets 29% odds of BTC touching $100,000 before the end of 2025.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2025-12\/019b0db2-96e5-785f-9205-2f0593344c01\" \/><figcaption><em>Bitcoin $100k price target before Dec. 31. Source: Kalshi<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Bitcoin\u2019s high for December sits at $94,600, reached on Tuesday, and the last time the BTC\/USD pair traded above $100,000 was on Nov. 13.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-ct-non-breakable=\"undefined\"><em><strong>Related: <\/strong><\/em><em><strong>Bitcoin due 2026 bottom as exchange volumes grind lower: Analysis<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Several factors have capped Bitcoin\u2019s rebound attempts in the short term, including growing macroeconomic uncertainties and a slowdown in Bitcoin treasury buys.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Data from Capriole Investments shows that the rate of companies purchasing Bitcoin per day continues to fall, a sign that institutions could be exhausted.\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2025-12\/019b0db4-69c0-79ce-ae4e-daec786e6db0\" alt=\"\" \/><figcaption><em>Bitcoin treasury company buyers. Source: Capriole Investments<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Despite the reduced Bitcoin treasury demand, Polymarket odds for Strategy selling Bitcoin remain marginal before the end of the year, while expectations for routine small buys stay elevated.<\/p>\n<p>Polymarket traders still see routine Strategy purchases this week as a high-probability event, with a 65% chance of buying over 1,000 BTC.<\/p>\n<p>Last week, Strategy expanded its Bitcoin treasury to 660,624 BTC after buying 10,624 coins for roughly $962.7 million, and is on course to match last year\u2019s Bitcoin purchases.\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2>Bitcoin\u2019s upside could be capped at $98,000<\/h2>\n<p>Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the BTC\/USD pair has been consolidating within an ascending triangle in lower time frames.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-ct-non-breakable=\"undefined\">The price is \u201cnow pushing against this resistance again,\u201d said analyst Daan Crypto Trades in an X post on Wednesday, referring to the supply zone between the $93,300 yearly open and $94,000.<\/p>\n<p data-ct-non-breakable=\"undefined\">A break and hold above $94,000 should lead to a move toward the measured target of the triangle around $108,000, but Daan Crypto Trades said it may only go as high as \u201cretesting the previous support area around ~$98K,\u201d adding:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cThis is also where a good amount of liquidity is located.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2025-12\/019b0db2-b062-7901-ab9c-c69549260a97\" \/><figcaption><em>BTC\/USD daily four-hour chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p data-ct-non-breakable=\"undefined\">As Cointelegraph reported, buyers will have to drive Bitcoin above $94,589 to open the gates for a retest of the $98,000-$100,000 zone.<\/p>\n<p>*********************************<\/p>\n<p>If one of the paying programs on our Monitor appeals to you, please support <em>EmilyNews<\/em> by registering for it on our website. Thanks very very much!<\/p>\n<p>EN web <strong>Support Chat<\/strong> | Hyips and Crypto questions \u2013 <strong><a style=\"color: #c03939; text-decoration: underline;\" href=\"http:\/\/emilynews.com\/chat\/hyips\/\">HyipChatEN<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Telegram Chat for Crypto and Hyip reports: <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/telegram.me\/HyipChatEN\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">@HyipChatEN<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>*********************************<\/p>\n<p>Be the first to get most important HYIP news everyday!<br \/>\nSimply Follow <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/EmilyNewsOnline\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">EN Facebook<\/strong><\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/telegram.me\/CryptoHyipsEN\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong style=\"color: #c03939; text-decoration: underline;\">EN Telegram<\/strong><\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/EmilyHyipNews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong style=\"text-decoration: underline; font-size: 1.3em;\">EN Twitter<\/strong><\/a><br \/>\nor Subscribe to <strong><a style=\"color: #c03939; text-decoration: underline;\" href=\"https:\/\/feedburner.google.com\/fb\/a\/mailverify?uri=Emilynews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">EN Feedburner<\/a><\/strong> and submit your email address!<\/p>\n<p>If you like this article and want to support EN \u2013 please share it by using at least few of social media buttons below. Thanks and See you tomorrow!<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/emilynews.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Reminder2-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-13137\" src=\"https:\/\/emilynews.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Reminder2-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"544\" height=\"600\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin bull market optimism has suffered since the Oct. 10 crash, as chances of a short-term BTC price rally above $100,000 appeared to be fading. Bitcoin could remain pinned below $100,000 for the remainder of &hellip; <a title=\"Prediction markets: Bitcoin won\u2019t reach $100K before year\u2019s end\" class=\"exalt-read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/emilynews.com\/blog\/?p=54505\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Prediction markets: Bitcoin won\u2019t reach $100K before year\u2019s end<\/span>Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":54507,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5651,6],"tags":[139,3544,3812,5652,10,97],"class_list":["post-54505","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptonews","category-information","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-cryptonews","tag-emilynews","tag-hyip","tag-hyips","exalt-entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Prediction markets: Bitcoin won\u2019t reach $100K before year\u2019s end - EmilyNews<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/emilynews.com\/blog\/?p=54505\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Prediction markets: Bitcoin won\u2019t reach $100K before year\u2019s end - EmilyNews\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bitcoin bull market optimism has suffered since the Oct. 10 crash, as chances of a short-term BTC price rally above $100,000 appeared to be fading. 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