{"id":53974,"date":"2025-10-09T04:50:58","date_gmt":"2025-10-09T04:50:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/emilynews.com\/blog\/?p=53974"},"modified":"2025-10-09T04:50:58","modified_gmt":"2025-10-09T04:50:58","slug":"bitcoin-looks-far-from-overbought-as-stars-are-aligned-for-etf-surge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/emilynews.com\/blog\/?p=53974","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin looks far from overbought as \u2018stars are aligned\u2019 for ETF surge"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitwise\u2019s Matt Hougan predicts Bitcoin ETF inflows will hit a record in Q4, as analysts say Bitcoin still has room to run despite recently hitting a peak.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin is currently clear of \u201coverbought conditions\u201d and is set to track a steady path upward despite hitting a new all-time high on Monday, according to analysts.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Bitcoin hit a peak high of over $126,000 on Monday, which places it \u201croughly halfway through its four-year price cycle,\u201d CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain said on Wednesday.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cDespite this strong performance, technical indicators suggest the price is still moving within a stable range far from the overbought conditions that typically precede historical peaks,\u201d it added.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin shows signs of \u201cupward momentum\u201d<\/h2>\n

Arab Chain stated that Bitcoin \u201cappears to be in a phase of balanced upward momentum,\u201d with its 30-day moving average, which is the average closing price over the last 30 days, being just under $116,000, \u201csuggesting a steady upward trend without sharp deviations.\u201d<\/p>\n

It added that Bitcoin\u2019s 30-day standard deviation, or the variability of its returns, was also \u201crelatively low at $4,540, reflecting a compression in volatility, a condition that typically precedes strong price movements, especially upward, if supported by renewed liquidity inflows.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bitcoin\u2019s growth ratio has been on an upward trajectory since May 2024. Source: <\/em>CryptoQuant<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The analysts said Bitcoin tends to reach its cycle peak up to 600 days after its halving, where mining rewards are slashed 50%, and if that pattern continues, Bitcoin is now \u201cwithin the critical window that has previously led to major bull market tops.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cStars are aligned\u201d for record Q4 ETF inflows: Bitwise<\/h2>\n

It comes as Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan predicted on Tuesday that inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) will surge in the fourth quarter.<\/p>\n

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Hougan said that Bitcoin\u2019s surging price is one of the reasons that inflows into US Bitcoin ETFs \u201cwill set a record\u201d in Q4, and will \u201cpull in more money in 2025 than they did in their record-setting first year, when they attracted $36 billion.\u201d<\/p>\n

The ETFs have attracted $22.5 billion in inflows in the first nine months of the year, which would put them on pace to end 2025 with approximately $30 billion in flows.<\/p>\n

\u201cHere\u2019s a hot take: I\u2019m not worried,\u201d Hougan said. \u201cFrom where I sit, the stars are aligned for a very strong Q4 for flows\u2014more than enough to push us to a new record.\u201d<\/p>\n

He said the \u201cmost fundamental\u201d reason he predicts high flows to cap 2025 is that he\u2019s \u201cbullish on Bitcoin returns for Q4.\u201d<\/p>\n

Gold (black) and Bitcoin (orange) ETF inflows by year since launch. Source: <\/em>Bitwise<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cAlthough it\u2019s a bit counterintuitive, higher prices often spur greater demand for Bitcoin ETFs as the media, companies, and everyday investors pivot their attention to Bitcoin,\u201d Hougan said.<\/p>\n

He added that in every quarter where Bitcoin saw double-digit growth, inflows to Bitcoin ETFs also saw \u201cdouble-digit billions in inflows.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cDebasement trade,\u201d platform approvals put Q4 at a good start<\/h2>\n

Hougan said his prediction is also based on a wider range of investors being able to invest in the ETFs as wealth managers open up to them and as traders look to invest in assets that do well with a weakening US dollar.<\/p>\n

Related: <\/strong><\/em>Bitcoin rebounds toward range highs as data highlights \u2018real liquidity\u2019<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Wall Street will look for \u201cThe Debasement Trade\u201d to buy well-performing assets as the US dollar weakens, Hougan said, and gold and Bitcoin have both performed well so far this year.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhy does this matter? Because when advisers sit down with their clients for their annual review, they want their year-end printouts to show that they hold the most successful investments. There\u2019s only one way to do that: By buying gold and Bitcoin.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

That debasement trade will be helped by some of the largest wealth managers \u201cfinally changing\u201d to open up their platforms to Bitcoin ETFs, Hougan said.<\/p>\n

He noted a Morgan Stanley report released earlier this month that guides 16,000 advisers said they could \u201cflexibly allocate to cryptocurrency as part of their multiasset portfolio\u201d with a suggested allocation of up to 4% for \u201crisk-tolerant investors.\u201d<\/p>\n

Hougan added that Q4 \u201cis off to a great start\u201d with the ETFs taking in $3.5 billion in net flows in the first four trading days.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have 64 more days to get another $10 billion,\u201d he said. \u201cI think we\u2019ll do that and then some.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Bitwise\u2019s Matt Hougan predicts Bitcoin ETF inflows will hit a record in Q4, as analysts say Bitcoin still has room to run despite recently hitting a peak. Bitcoin is currently clear of \u201coverbought conditions\u201d and … Bitcoin looks far from overbought as \u2018stars are aligned\u2019 for ETF surge<\/span>Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":53976,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5651,6],"tags":[139,3544,3812,5652,10,159,97],"class_list":["post-53974","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptonews","category-information","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-cryptonews","tag-emilynews","tag-hyip","tag-hyipnews","tag-hyips","exalt-entry"],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin looks far from overbought as \u2018stars are aligned\u2019 for ETF surge - EmilyNews<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/emilynews.com\/blog\/?p=53974\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bitcoin looks far from overbought as \u2018stars are aligned\u2019 for ETF surge - EmilyNews\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bitwise\u2019s Matt Hougan predicts Bitcoin ETF inflows will hit a record in Q4, as analysts say Bitcoin still has room to run despite recently hitting a peak. 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