{"id":53942,"date":"2025-10-01T04:14:35","date_gmt":"2025-10-01T04:14:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/emilynews.com\/blog\/?p=53942"},"modified":"2025-10-01T04:14:36","modified_gmt":"2025-10-01T04:14:36","slug":"bitcoins-rare-september-gains-defy-history-data-predicts-50-q4-rally-to-170k","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/emilynews.com\/blog\/?p=53942","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin\u2019s rare September gains defy history: Data predicts 50% Q4 rally to $170K"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin moves closer to a positive monthly close, which has historically been followed by strong double-digit rallies in Q4. Is $170,000 possible by the end of 2025?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Key takeaways:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>Bitcoin aims to close September with a 4.5% gain, a setup that historically precedes strong Q4 rallies.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Onchain data shows spot demand strengthening, led by US investors.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bitcoin is on track to close September in positive territory, up 4.5% to about $113,100 on the final trading day of the month. Historically, a green September has been a powerful setup for the market, often preceding strong rallies in the final quarter of the year.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2025-09\/01999b05-24c6-71d8-81d7-c5081531b441\" alt=\"Coinbase, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Binance, Price Analysis, Market Analysis\" \/><figcaption><em>Bitcoin one-month chart. Source: <\/em><em>Cointelegraph\/TradingView<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>According to data, when Bitcoin closed a green monthly candle in September 2015, 2016, 2023 and 2024, Q4 produced average returns of more than 53%. Breaking it down further, October averaged 21.8%, November 10.8%, and December was down 3.2%, highlighting October as the key ignition point while year-end performance varied.<\/p>\n<p>In those instances, Bitcoin went on to post Q4 returns ranging between 45% and 66%, often leading BTC to new highs. If a similar pattern plays out, BTC could be eyeing the $170,000 region before year-end based on current levels.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2025-09\/01999adb-4157-7f9d-b9a9-62ccccfbc903\" alt=\"Coinbase, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Binance, Price Analysis, Market Analysis\" \/><figcaption><em>Bitcoin quarterly returns post \u201cgreen\u201d September. Source: CoinGlass\/Cointelegraph<\/p>\n<p><\/em><\/figcaption>Seasonality data shows that October typically acts as the launchpad, with gains extending into November and, in certain years, December. The effect has been profitable in post-halving years, as capital inflows and market positioning push Bitcoin into fresh price discovery.<\/figure>\n<div class=\"m-auto relative\">\n<div>\u00a0<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Cointelegraph recently reported insights from Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson, who noted that roughly 60% of Bitcoin\u2019s annual performance tends to occur after Oct. 3, with momentum often extending well into June. The analyst further suggested there is a 50% probability of BTC reaching $200,000 by mid-2026, supported by recurring seasonality-driven bull phases. However, Peterson also added,<\/p>\n<blockquote data-ct-non-breakable=\"undefined\"><p>\u201cThis year, it is almost certain to be positive based on history and developing market conditions. However, most of the time, the big gains don&#8217;t start until about the third week.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>While past performance does not guarantee future results, the tendency for BTC to accelerate higher after a green September adds weight to bullish projections for the coming months. With Bitcoin trading firmly above $110,000, the final quarter could again prove decisive for the asset.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Related: Did Bitcoin price bottom at $108K? 3 reasons that the worst is over<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<h3><strong>BTC spot activity indicators turn bullish<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Onchain metrics also reflected a strengthening bullish outlook for Bitcoin. The Spot Taker CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) on a 90-day basis flipped positive on Monday, marking its first green signal since July 14. This indicator tracks the cumulative difference between market buy and market sell volumes, with a positive reading suggesting a Taker Buy Dominant Phase where buying pressure outweighs selling activity.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2025-09\/01999ada-6eff-7d8e-8917-22ba148a1f3e\" alt=\"Coinbase, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Binance, Price Analysis, Market Analysis\" \/><figcaption><em>Bitcoin Spot Taker CVD. Source: CryptoQuant<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>At the same time, the Coinbase premium index has highlighted consistent accumulation by US investors. Data showed concentrated clusters of green activity during the third quarter, signaling aggressive spot demand not seen since early July. The alignment of the Coinbase premium with the Spot Taker CVD shift reinforces the view that buying momentum is building in the market.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2025-09\/01999ad9-f700-7220-af94-bf8ce789945c\" alt=\"Coinbase, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Binance, Price Analysis, Market Analysis\" \/><figcaption><em>Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuant<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><em><strong>Related: Bitcoin gears up for \u2018Uptober\u2019 after $114K rally revives bulls<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>*********************************<\/p>\n<p>If one of the paying programs on our Monitor appeals to you, please support <em>EmilyNews<\/em> by registering for it on our website. Thanks very very much!<\/p>\n<p>EN web <strong>Support Chat<\/strong> | Hyips and Crypto questions \u2013 <strong><a style=\"color: #c03939; text-decoration: underline;\" href=\"http:\/\/emilynews.com\/chat\/hyips\/\">HyipChatEN<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Telegram Chat for Crypto and Hyip reports: <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/telegram.me\/HyipChatEN\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">@HyipChatEN<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>*********************************<\/p>\n<p>Be the first to get most important HYIP news everyday!<br \/>\nSimply Follow <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/EmilyNewsOnline\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">EN Facebook<\/strong><\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/telegram.me\/CryptoHyipsEN\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong style=\"color: #c03939; text-decoration: underline;\">EN Telegram<\/strong><\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/EmilyHyipNews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong style=\"text-decoration: underline; font-size: 1.3em;\">EN Twitter<\/strong><\/a><br \/>\nor Subscribe to <strong><a style=\"color: #c03939; text-decoration: underline;\" href=\"https:\/\/feedburner.google.com\/fb\/a\/mailverify?uri=Emilynews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">EN Feedburner<\/a><\/strong> and submit your email address!<\/p>\n<p>If you like this article and want to support EN \u2013 please share it by using at least few of social media buttons below. Thanks and See you tomorrow!<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/emilynews.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Reminder2-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-13137\" src=\"https:\/\/emilynews.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Reminder2-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"544\" height=\"600\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin moves closer to a positive monthly close, which has historically been followed by strong double-digit rallies in Q4. Is $170,000 possible by the end of 2025? Key takeaways: Bitcoin aims to close September with &hellip; <a title=\"Bitcoin\u2019s rare September gains defy history: Data predicts 50% Q4 rally to $170K\" class=\"exalt-read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/emilynews.com\/blog\/?p=53942\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Bitcoin\u2019s rare September gains defy history: Data predicts 50% Q4 rally to $170K<\/span>Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":53944,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5651,6],"tags":[139,3544,3812,5652,10,159,97],"class_list":["post-53942","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptonews","category-information","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-cryptonews","tag-emilynews","tag-hyip","tag-hyipnews","tag-hyips","exalt-entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin\u2019s rare September gains defy history: Data predicts 50% Q4 rally to $170K - EmilyNews<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/emilynews.com\/blog\/?p=53942\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bitcoin\u2019s rare September gains defy history: Data predicts 50% Q4 rally to $170K - EmilyNews\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bitcoin moves closer to a positive monthly close, which has historically been followed by strong double-digit rallies in Q4. 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