{"id":51917,"date":"2024-10-31T01:10:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-31T01:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/bitcoin-trump-hedge-macroeconomic-all-time-high"},"modified":"2024-10-31T04:44:07","modified_gmt":"2024-10-31T04:44:07","slug":"bitcoin-trump-hedge-rally-lacks-macro-conditions-for-all-time-high","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/emilynews.com\/blog\/?p=51917","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin \u2018Trump hedge\u2019 rally lacks macro conditions for all-time high"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin\u2019s current rally may be part of a wider bet on former President Donald Trump\u2019s victory, which could lead to a \u201csell the news\u201d event after the election.<\/p>\n<p>The Bitcoin (BTC) price rose above $73,600 on Oct. 29 reaching its highest level since March 2024, just $200 shy of a new all-time high.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2024-10\/0192dd34-1a84-7a3b-af20-09bc90026b51\" alt=\"\" \/><figcaption><em>BTC\/USD, 1-year chart. Source: Cointelegraph<\/em><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>While Bitcoin is seemingly correlated with Trump\u2019s rising odds of a presidential election victory, it doesn\u2019t necessarily imply a sustained post-election rally.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin is used as a proxy for a potential Trump victory, according to pseudonymous crypto analyst, \u201cThe Giver,\u201d who wrote in an Oct. 30 X post:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cThe direction of the election does not drive a price-dependent outcome; rather Bitcoin is currently being used as a liquid proxy to hedge a Trump win.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The prediction comes just days before the US presidential election on Nov. 5, which has become a focal point for crypto investors. The election outcome could influence crypto regulations and market movements until 2028.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Related: <\/strong><\/em><em><strong>Bhutan gov\u2019t moves $66M of Bitcoin stash to Binance as price tops $71K<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Bitcoin\u2019s October gains: Trump pump or proxy?<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin\u2019s October rally seems correlated with Trump\u2019s rising election odds on the world\u2019s leading decentralized predictions market, Polymarket.<\/p>\n<p>On Oct. 16, Bitcoin price reached a two-and-a-half-month high above $68,200 as Trump\u2019s odds of a victory rose to a record high of\u00a0 60.2%, while Harris\u2019 slid to 39.8%.<\/p>\n<p>On Oct. 28, Bitcoin surpassed $70,000 for the first time since June 10 as Trump\u2019s odds of winning the election surpassed 66.3%.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2024-10\/0192dd38-10e6-71ae-9eb5-6c11045ba5e0\" alt=\"\" \/><figcaption><em>BTC\/USD chart and Polymarket odds, 1-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph and Polymarket<\/em><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>However, this correlation does not mean that Trump\u2019s rising odds are driving Bitcoin\u2019s price. The Giver noted that there is growing conviction around a previously \u201cunderpriced\u201d Trump victory:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cConsensus is viewing \u2018the Trump trade\u2019 incorrectly; the effect is not causation where increasing Trump odds linearly creates a vacuum for BTC to perform, but rather the basket of assets that have gone up this month reflect a Trump win having being underpriced entering the month.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><em><strong>Related: <\/strong><\/em><em><strong>Stablecoins essential for US dollar\u2019s future, says Paxos CEO<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Macroeconomic conditions are \u201cinsufficient\u201d for a post-election all-time high<\/h2>\n<p>Despite bullish Bitcoin price action, macroeconomic conditions are still insufficient to nudge the crypto industry to a new all-time high.<\/p>\n<p>The analyst explained:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cEasing conditions&#8221; present today for manufacturing a new TOTAL-high is insufficient. The correlation of rates and other popular heuristics to faction liquidity is much weaker than popular rhetoric suggests, with signs pointing toward price ultimately being suppressed rather than price discovery.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2024-10\/0192dd34-d699-71cf-9873-efaf555ebfe5\" alt=\"\" \/><figcaption><em>Bitcoin price vs. M2 Money Supply. Source: The Giver<\/em><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Quantitative easing refers to monetary policy where a central bank purchases a predetermined amount of government bonds to stimulate economic activity through liquidity injections.<\/p>\n<p>Liquidity injections from central banks often boost Bitcoin\u2019s price, by encouraging investors to seek higher returns in alternative assets.<\/p>\n<p>Others are more optimistic about Bitcoin\u2019s post-election prospects. Notably, Bitfinex analysts predict a Bitcoin rally to $80,000 before the end of 2024, driven by the options market structure and the prospect of a Republican presidential victory.<\/p>\n<p>[embedded content]<\/p>\n<p><em>Harris vs. Trump 2024: What\u2019s at Stake for the Crypto Market? Source: YouTube<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Magazine: <\/strong><\/em><em><strong>Microsoft set to vote on Bitcoin, Peter Todd hiding, and more: Hodler\u2019s Digest, Oct. 20\u201326<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Check <span style=\"background: #FDFBAC; padding: 1px 4px;\">other news for today<\/span> and Please stand by..<\/p>\n<p>*********************************<\/p>\n<p>If one of the paying programs on our Monitor appeals to you, please support <em>EmilyNews<\/em> by registering for it on our website. Thanks very very much!<\/p>\n<p>EN web <strong>Support Chat<\/strong> | Hyips and Crypto questions \u2013 <strong><a style=\"color: #c03939; text-decoration: underline;\" href=\"http:\/\/emilynews.com\/chat\/hyips\/\">HyipChatEN<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Telegram Chat for Crypto and Hyip reports: <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/telegram.me\/HyipChatEN\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">@HyipChatEN<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>*********************************<\/p>\n<p>Be the first to get most important HYIP news everyday!<br \/>\nSimply Follow <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/EmilyNewsOnline\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">EN Facebook<\/strong><\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/telegram.me\/CryptoHyipsEN\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong style=\"color: #c03939; text-decoration: underline;\">EN Telegram<\/strong><\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/EmilyHyipNews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong style=\"text-decoration: underline; font-size: 1.3em;\">EN Twitter<\/strong><\/a><br \/>\nor Subscribe to <strong><a style=\"color: #c03939; text-decoration: underline;\" href=\"https:\/\/feedburner.google.com\/fb\/a\/mailverify?uri=Emilynews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">EN Feedburner<\/a><\/strong> and submit your email address!<\/p>\n<p>If you like this article and want to support EN \u2013 please share it by using at least few of social media buttons below. Thanks and See you tomorrow!<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/emilynews.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Reminder2-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-13137\" src=\"https:\/\/emilynews.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Reminder2-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"544\" height=\"600\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin\u2019s current rally may be part of a wider bet on former President Donald Trump\u2019s victory, which could lead to a \u201csell the news\u201d event after the election. The Bitcoin (BTC) price rose above $73,600 &hellip; <a title=\"Bitcoin \u2018Trump hedge\u2019 rally lacks macro conditions for all-time high\" class=\"exalt-read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/emilynews.com\/blog\/?p=51917\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Bitcoin \u2018Trump hedge\u2019 rally lacks macro conditions for all-time high<\/span>Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":51921,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5651],"tags":[139,3544,3812,5652,10,159,97],"class_list":["post-51917","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptonews","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-cryptonews","tag-emilynews","tag-hyip","tag-hyipnews","tag-hyips","exalt-entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin \u2018Trump hedge\u2019 rally lacks macro conditions for all-time high - EmilyNews<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/emilynews.com\/blog\/?p=51917\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bitcoin \u2018Trump hedge\u2019 rally lacks macro conditions for all-time high - EmilyNews\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bitcoin\u2019s current rally may be part of a wider bet on former President Donald Trump\u2019s victory, which could lead to a \u201csell the news\u201d event after the election. 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