{"id":10979,"date":"2020-05-26T04:41:22","date_gmt":"2020-05-26T04:41:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/emilynews.com\/blog\/?p=10979"},"modified":"2020-05-26T04:41:24","modified_gmt":"2020-05-26T04:41:24","slug":"news-commentary-1069-btc-down-10","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/emilynews.com\/blog\/?p=10979","title":{"rendered":"News Commentary #1,069 – BTC Down 10%!"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Wait Another Month for it to Rise?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a recent article that appeared in Coindesk, Omkar Godbole analyzes the decline in the value of BTC in the past two weeks since halving took place.  Some BTC holders were probably hoping for quick increases in value.  However, Gobbole points out that, following previous halving events, it took a month or so for BTC to become bearish.  So, patience appears to be the name of the game if you have some BTC that you are holing on to.  If you would like to read Mr. Godbole\u2019s analysis, I\u2019ve reprinted it below:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With bitcoin\u2019s price losing altitude again, small investors appear to be seeking exposure to the top cryptocurrency by market value.<\/strong><\/p>

Prices fell by 9.8% last week to register bitcoin\u2019s biggest weekly decline since the second week of March, according to CoinDesk\u2019s\u00a0Bitcoin Price Index.\u00a0A two-week low of $8,630 was registered early on Monday, with prices last seen at $8,730 \u2013 down over 11% from the post-halving high of $9,960 registered on May 18.\u00a0<\/p>

Despite the price drop \u2013 or perhaps because of it \u2013 the number of addresses holding smaller amounts of bitcoin has continued to rise.\u00a0<\/p>

The number of unique addresses holding at least 0.01 BTC (around $87 at press time) rose to a new high of 8,478,746 on Sunday, according to data provided by blockchain intelligence firm\u00a0Glassnode.<\/p>

Meanwhile, the number of addresses holding at least 0.1 BTC (roughly $870) also rose to a lifetime high, reaching 3,053,004 on Friday. Both metrics regained their upward trajectory following the May 11 mining reward halving.<\/p>

The dip demand may be associated with the bullish narrative that bitcoin could\u00a0repeat history\u00a0by charting a solid price rally over the next 12 months. The cryptocurrency witnessed a 30% pullback in the four weeks following its second reward halving on July 9, 2016. However, the decline was erased in the subsequent months and prices rallied to record highs by March 2016.<\/p>

Prominent trading firms are also retaining a constructive outlook on the cryptocurrency. \u201cThe price pullback was expected and the long-term bias remains bullish. We\u00a0would accumulate\u00a0if prices drop to the $6,000-$8,000 range,\u201d said Darius Sit, co-founder and managing director at Singapore-based\u00a0QCP capital.<\/p>

That said, the growth in the number of small addresses does not necessarily all represent new individual investors. This is because a single user can hold cryptocurrency in multiple addresses.\u00a0<\/p>

Exchanges and custodial services also tend to hold bitcoins in multiple addresses. \u201cWallet management systems of virtual asset service providers have become more complex and granular. Their wallet clusters include more small wallets for security, etc.,\u201d said Ju.\u00a0<\/p>

As such, it is difficult to gauge exactly how much of the small address growth has been driven by new investor participation.\u00a0<\/p>

Even if small investor participation is increasing, it is unlikely to have a big impact on prices, as the market is still dominated by large players, popularly known as \u201cwhales.\u201d The number of addresses holding at least 10,000 BTC and 1,000 BTC have declined over the last two weeks,\u00a0according to\u00a0Glassnode data.<\/p>

Moreover, options market activity suggests a deeper price drop could be in the offing in the near-term. \u201cTraders are buying out-of-the-money puts,\u201d said Chris Thomas, head of digital assets at Swissquote Bank.\u00a0<\/p>

A put option represents a bearish bet on the cryptocurrency, while a call option represents a bullish bet. An out-of-the-money put option has a strike price that is lower than the market price of the underlying asset.\u00a0<\/p>

Thomas expects bitcoin to move toward the $8,000\u2013$8,200 range in the short-term. That looks likely, as per the charts, as the cryptocurrency has breached a trendline rising from March lows.\u00a0<\/p>

Bitcoin fell by 5% on Monday, violating the support of the 2.5-month-long bullish trendline marked. The breakdown is backed by deeper bars on the MACD histogram, a sign of strengthening bearish momentum.\u00a0<\/p>

\u201cHowever, the relative strength index is neutral (going sideways),\u201d Yuriy Mazur, head of data analytics at cryptocurrency exchange CEX.IO, told CoinDesk, while adding that, \u201cthere is no clear understanding where BTC will go currently. It may either retrace back to $6,500 or reach $10,000. We may get a clear indication of the further direction in the nearest days.\u201d<\/p>

\u201cAfter the halving took place, there were practically no buyers for Bitcoin, but in the range of $9,900\u2013$10,000, a zone of hard technical resistance formed, that is very difficult to overcome under the current conditions,\u201d said Mazur.\u00a0<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n

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Wait Another Month for it to Rise? In a recent article that appeared in Coindesk, Omkar Godbole analyzes the decline in the value of BTC in the past two weeks since halving took place.  Some … News Commentary #1,069 – BTC Down 10%!<\/span>Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10984,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[139,4091,3545,1874,2189,3544,3669,287,3546,3547],"class_list":["post-10979","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-information","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-halving","tag-bitcoin-info","tag-bitcoin-insights","tag-bitcoin-investment","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price-update","tag-bitcoin-split","tag-bitcoin-update","tag-bitcoin-updates","exalt-entry"],"yoast_head":"\nNews Commentary #1,069 - BTC Down 10%! - EmilyNews<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/emilynews.com\/blog\/?p=10979\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"News Commentary #1,069 - BTC Down 10%! - EmilyNews\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Wait Another Month for it to Rise? 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